When AI helps Indian farmers predict the monsoon

By Anne-Laure Frémont

[Translated from French] ANALYSIS – The rainy season has been unusual this year in India. Thanks to a weather forecasting program based on artificial intelligence, millions of people were warned in time.

“In your region, there is a high probability that rainy weather will persist until June 24, approximately 70% (i.e., 70 out of 100).” Last June, Indian farmers received this message by text message. A total of 38 million farmers across 13 states received several text messages of this type from their country’s Ministry of Agriculture. These monsoon forecasts, powered by artificial intelligence, allowed them to predict the weather up to four weeks in advance. It is a a first, according to the Indian government.

In India, millions of farmers depend on rainfall for Kharif crops (or monsoon crops, such as rice or millet) sown during the rainy season, which generally runs from June to October. However, “there is a forecast for the onset of the monsoon in Kerala (southern India) that farmers pay attention to. Because, thanks to historical data, they know how long after Kerala the monsoon starts in their region. However, overall, there is no two- to four-week forecast that is adapted to the information they need,” explains Pedram Hassanzadeh, an associate professor of geophysical sciences at the University of Chicago.

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