China’s leadership in electric vehicle adoption, where EVs comprised nearly 50% of new vehicle sales in 2024 and are projected to surpass 50% in 2025, is driving fundamental changes in transportation infrastructure. This includes increased demand for charging stations and a decline of gasoline stations due to decreased demand for internal combustion engine vehicles. While prior studies have explored how EV adoption spurs charging station growth, this research analyzes the inverse effect: how declining internal combustion engine use reduces gas station viability, prompting station exits or conversions, which in turn further accelerates EV adoption. Using a comprehensive dataset from 2013 to 2025 across 297 cities in China, the study will develop a dynamic model of vehicle demand and infrastructure evolution. It will estimate how infrastructure availability, profitability, and policy interventions affect consumer choices and station investment decisions, particularly among dominant players like PetroChina and Sinopec. By simulating different policy scenarios, the research aims to identify tipping points in the EV transition and inform strategies for managing infrastructure shifts, offering key insights for energy economists, policymakers, and transportation planners navigating global decarbonization.
