Wildfire sizes: combining theory, observations, & statistics to improve projections

Wildfires are a major climate hazard that cause human mortality and billions in property damage. The frequency and intensity of wildfires are changing alongside our changing climate, making projections uncertain. This project will combine classical theory from statistical physics, comprehensive observations of wildfire sizes, and modern statistical methods to characterize the distribution of wildfire sizes. Theoretical models of forest fires have played an important role in statistical physics by demonstrating principles of ‘self-organized criticality.’ Despite their theoretical importance and substantial empirical effort to characterize wildfires statistically, these models have not been rigorously and systematically tested against observations. The researchers will compare theoretical predictions against modern observations to either validate the theory or identify how it needs to be modified to reproduce observed wildfire distributions. This will result in an improved characterization of the fundamental processes governing wildfire sizes, which can be leveraged to improve projections of wildfires.

“We’re excited to try to improve projections of this critical climate hazard by better integrating observations and theory.”

B.B. Cael, Assistant Professor, Department of the Geophysical Sciences at the University of Chicago